Live nest-egg projection with a safe-income line and runway dial - so a stockpile never pretends to be annual spending money.
Inflation-adjusted sketch. No Social Security, pensions, taxes, or personalized advice.
By Ahmet C. Toplutaş·Site owner & editor · Personal finance tools
Last updated Dec 14, 2025 · Planning estimates only - not tax, medical, or investment advice
01
A projected balance at retirement is a stockpile. It is not the same thing as the money you can spend every year without a plan to empty the account. Saying “I’ll have a million dollars” without a withdrawal rate is like confusing a reservoir with the annual rainfall you can safely take from it.
This page’s framing is nest egg ≠ spendable income. The panel always shows both: the projected nest egg and a safe-income line at your chosen withdrawal rate, then a runway dial for how long your target annual spend could last against that stockpile.
Decision framing: “What income does this balance support at a prudent withdrawal rate?” - not “the nest egg number is my lifestyle.”
02
Nominal returns look optimistic when prices rise. The panel converts expected return and inflation into a real rate, then compounds today’s savings and annual contributions in today’s purchasing power. Nest egg and income sketches are therefore comparable to the lifestyle dollars you typed as target spend.
Contributions are modeled as a level annual deposit in today’s dollars - a planning sketch, not a month-by-month 401(k) simulation with raises, matches, or fee drag.
03
The runway dial answers a different question than the safe-income line. Safe income asks “what yearly draw is WR% of the nest egg?” The dial asks “if I actually spend my target annual amount, how many years could the stockpile last at the same real return?”
When target spend sits at or below the portfolio’s real earnings rate, the dial reads indefinite in this simple model - not a promise markets will cooperate, but a signal that your spend is inside the portfolio’s modeled carry. When spend is higher, the dial shows a finite burnout horizon.
This is why the dial is the unique affordance here: it separates “balance looks big” from “lifestyle lasts.” Twin clocks, score anatomy, and cliff gates answer other jobs - runway is the retirement-native readout.
04
The classic ~4% starting withdrawal rate is a historical heuristic often associated with long retirements and diversified stock/bond portfolios. It is a planning default, not a covenant with markets. Sequence-of-returns risk, fees, taxes, longevity, and flexible spending can push prudent starting rates toward roughly 3–5% depending on the household.
Use the withdrawal-rate field to stress the income line. Dropping from 4% to 3.5% shrinks safe income and raises the FIRE-style target nest egg for the same spend - the panel makes that tradeoff visible without pretending certainty.
05
A common sketch is target nest egg ≈ annual spend ÷ withdrawal rate. At $40,000/year and 4%, the target is about $1,000,000. The coverage bar compares your projected nest egg to that spend-backed target so you see surplus or shortfall without confusing the balance for income.
“FIRE” here means the arithmetic habit, not a lifestyle brand. Lean FIRE presets use a lower spend and sometimes a more conservative withdrawal rate; catch-up presets raise contributions when the horizon is shorter.
06
Example A · Early starter. Preset: 30→65, $25k saved, $8k/yr, 7% / 2.5%, 4% WR, $40k spend.
Long horizon does most of the compounding. Compare safe income to the $40k target on the nest≠income split - if income covers spend, the runway dial should lean indefinite or long. If not, raise contributions or extend the working years before you trust the stockpile headline.
Example B · Catch-up. Preset: 45→65 with higher annual contributions.
Twenty years is still powerful, but less forgiving. Watch the FIRE coverage bar: a large current balance helps, yet the contribution rate often decides whether the target spend is funded. Stress inflation up 0.5 points and see real return - and runway - compress.
Example C · Lean FIRE path. Preset: 35→55, lean $35k spend, 3.5% WR.
Earlier retirement needs either a larger stockpile or a leaner lifestyle. The lower WR raises the target nest egg for the same spend - intentional conservatism for a longer retirement span. The dial is the honesty check: can the lean spend last?
Example D · Near retiree. Preset: 58→65, capital-heavy. With few compounding years left, the nest egg is mostly what you already have. Safe income and runway dominate the decision - contribution tweaks matter less than spend and withdrawal rate.
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Stop here for a clear inflation-adjusted accumulation and withdrawal sketch. Hand off when you need tax-lot detail, Social Security claiming strategies, pension options, or debt payoff schedules.
10
The nest egg is a stockpile at retirement - a balance. Spendable income is what you can draw each year without a plan to empty the account overnight. A $1,000,000 balance is not $1,000,000 of annual income. This page shows both: the stockpile and the safe-withdrawal income line at your chosen rate.
It estimates how many years the projected nest egg could fund your target annual spend in retirement, using the same inflation-adjusted real return as the accumulation phase. If your spend is at or below the portfolio’s real earnings rate, the dial reads indefinite (sustainable in this simple model). It is a planning sketch, not a guarantee.
No. The classic ~4% starting withdrawal (often tied to Trinity Study / safe withdrawal rate research) is a historical planning heuristic for diversified portfolios over multi-decade retirements. Sequence-of-returns risk, fees, taxes, and spending flexibility can make 3–5% more realistic depending on your situation.
Yes. The panel converts nominal return and inflation into a real rate, then compounds savings and contributions in today’s purchasing-power terms. Nest egg and withdrawal figures are therefore easier to compare to today’s lifestyle costs.
No. It models a taxable-style investment balance with annual contributions and a simple withdrawal rate. Government benefits, pensions, employer matches, account types (401(k), IRA, Roth), and taxes are out of scope - layer those on top with a planner or more detailed tools.
Target nest egg ≈ desired annual spend ÷ (withdrawal rate / 100). At 4% and $40,000/year spend, the sketch target is about $1,000,000. The panel compares your projected nest egg to that number so you can see surplus or shortfall without confusing the balance for income.
No. Values hydrate from the URL on load, but the address bar updates only when you use Share or Copy. That keeps live editing calm and share links intentional.
LIVE RETIREMENT SKETCH
Nest ≠ income ↓Path presets
Nominal
Safe-income sketch
Today’s dollars
Updates live. Nest egg ≠ spendable income. Inflation-adjusted real return. No SS, pensions, or taxes.
Projected nest egg (today’s $)
$750,030
35 yrs to save · safe income ~$30,001/yr at 4%
NEST ≠ INCOME · RUNWAY DIAL
STOCKPILE (NEST EGG)
$750,030
Balance at retirement age
SAFE INCOME @ 4%
$30,001 /yr
vs target spend $40,000/yr · short of target
Do not read the stockpile as annual income. The highlighted row is the income sketch at your withdrawal rate.
40.0
Years of runway at target spend
Runway at $40,000/yr target spend (real return 4.39%). *Indefinite means spend ≤ portfolio real earnings in this model.
Projected nest egg fills 75% of the spend-backed target · shortfall $249,970. Progress bar is coverage toward that target - not a product ladder.
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