Live path-risk board — so an endpoint move never pretends to be volatility.
Educational series sketch. Move ≠ risk. Not VaR software or trading advice.
By Ahmet C. Toplutaş·Site owner & editor · Blockchain tools
Last updated May 21, 2026 · Reviewed May 21, 2026 · Planning estimates only - not tax, medical, or investment advice
01
A coin that went from 100 to 115 made a move. That percentage is not the same as risk — how violent the path was between those endpoints. Sample volatility and max drawdown need a series, not two prices.
This page’s framing is Move ≠ risk. The panel still shows endpoint return, then refuses to let it stand in for path σ or drawdown.
That is a different job from crypto P/L (Mark ≠ basis) and crypto DCA (Path ≠ finish on a buy schedule). Here “path” means the price series itself.
Decision framing: “Was the ride calm or violent?” — not only “How far did price travel?”
02
Paste or edit a short chronological series (daily or weekly bars). The strip is a visual spark of the path — calm grind, whipsaw, crash-bounce. Presets load teaching shapes so Move ≠ risk appears without hunting for CSV files.
Bar cadence matters: daily annualizes with √365, weekly with √52. Do not mix cadences in one paste without saying so.
03
The unique affordance is the three-readout board: endpoint move, annualized sample σ from period returns, and max peak-to-trough drawdown. Narratives flag whipsaw (flat move, high σ), smooth move (large move, quieter σ), or thin samples.
That is not a stipend stress chip, not a bill/footprint divergence board, and not a DCA path-shape dial. It is path-risk literacy for crypto marks.
04
Taking start and end, dividing by days, and scaling by √365 produces a number that looks like volatility but is only a dressed-up move. Toggle the myth compare to see endpoints-only “vol” beside path σ on the same series — Move ≠ risk made obvious.
The old two-field engine on this site taught that myth by accident. This board corrects it without hiding the temptation.
05
Simple returns, sample standard deviation, no risk-free rate on the Sharpe-like sketch. For general stdev practice see the standard deviation calculator.
06
07
Scenario A — Whipsaw flat. Load the preset. Endpoint move is near zero while path σ and drawdowns stay ugly. That is Move ≠ risk in one glance.
Keep the series fixed. Toggle the two-point myth on — watch fake “vol” disagree with path σ.
Scenario B — Calm grind up. Move is clearly positive; σ stays relatively calm; MDD is shallow. Risk and move can agree — still useful as a control.
Scenario C — Crash + bounce. Final move may look recoverable while MDD records the hole you sat in. Drawdown owns the teaching.
Scenario D — Weekly trend. Coarser bars change annualization. Same idea, different √N — cadence is part of the honesty.
08
09
10
Stop here for path-risk literacy. Hand off for bags, schedules, tickets, or tax methods.
11
Endpoint return (start → end) is a move. Sample volatility and max drawdown need a price path. Two prices alone cannot estimate σ honestly — they only show how far you traveled, not how violently the ride felt.
No. This is an educational sketch from a handful of bars. Real risk tools use longer histories, returns conventions, and often log returns. Treat the number as literacy, not a trading signal.
Scaling a single period return by √365 and calling it “volatility” confuses Move with risk. The panel can show that fake annualized figure beside true path σ so the myth stays visible.
σ summarizes period-to-period dispersion. Max drawdown is the worst peak-to-trough loss along the path. A calm grind and a crash-bounce can share a move while MDD disagrees — Move ≠ risk includes that gap.
Daily bars annualize with √365; weekly with √52. Mixing bar lengths without saying so breaks the sketch. Pick one cadence for the series you paste.
Crypto P/L owns Mark ≠ basis for bag performance. This page owns Move ≠ risk for path dispersion and drawdown. Use P/L for lots; use volatility for how wild the mark path was.
Rebalancing owns Drift ≠ ticket for weight policy. Volatility does not mint trades — it describes path risk that may make a drift gate fire more often.
LIVE PATH RISK · MOVE ≠ RISK
Move ≠ risk ↓Path presets
Bar cadence
10 valid points · need ≥3 for path σ
PATH STRIP · 10 BARS
MOVE ≠ RISK BOARD
Endpoint move
+2.0%
100 → 102
Ann. path σ
577.6%
daily bars
Max drawdown
-30.8%
Peak → trough
TWO-POINT MYTH
Scaling one move by √time is not sample volatility — Move ≠ risk.
Updates as you type. Share writes the URL; typing does not. Educational path sketch — not VaR, options pricing, or trading advice.
Path σ (ann.)
577.6%
Move +2.0% · MDD -30.8%
Copy the link to save or share your results.