Scenario A: SaaS B2B. Start 1,000, end 850, ARPA $12,000. Annual churn lands near 15%. Compound monthly is lower than 15% ÷ 12. Revenue at risk is 150 × $12,000. A familiar mid-market pressure band for many B2B books, not a universal grade.
Flip to Healthy book without changing how you read the peel. Watch annual and compound monthly both ease while the naive undershoot pattern stays visible.
Scenario B: Healthy book. Start 500, end 460. About 8% annual loss. Use this when you want a calmer year cohort for planning literacy, then stress with Turnaround.
Scenario C: B2C mid. Start 2,000, end 1,500, lower ARPA. Logos move hard; dollars may look smaller than B2B. Pair with revenue churn before you declare the business “fine.”
Scenario D: Turnaround. Start 800, end 560. Roughly 30% annual logo loss. The peel still refuses naive ÷12. This is when retention programs and product-market fit debates get louder than spreadsheet optimism.